U.S. weather watchers turn to furry forecasters

By Rebekah Kebede

Reuters News Services

Fri Oct 19, 1:15 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - With confidence in private weather forecasters slipping in the wake of some prediction gaffes during the past couple of years, perhaps woolly worms and groundhogs can take up the slack.

For instance, predictions for a severe winter didn't pan out the last time around, nor did projections for a brutal 2006 hurricane season.

So as weather forecasters have begun releasing their predictions for winter, trying to give some early insight into the season's likely demand scenario for heating fuels, some analysts are eyeing those predictions with a bit more scepticism than usual.

"It's an educated guess, but at the end of the day, it's still a guess," said Stephen Schork, editor of the energy newsletter The Schork Report.

Some energy traders look instead to woolly worms, small fuzzy caterpillars that are the larva of the Isabella tiger moth, as predictors of winter weather, said Jay Levine, a natural gas broker with enerjay LLC in Portland, Maine. In some parts of the U.S. these critters are also known as woolly bear caterpillars.

According to Roy Krege, the coordinator of the annual Woolly Worm Festival held in Banner Elk, North Carolina, a woolly worm can tell the winter with 87 percent accuracy.

"As a rule, the blacker the caterpillar, the harsher the winter," said Krege. The woolly worm's prediction for this winter comes out on October 20 when one worm is selected and its colouring judged at the festival, which also features a race of 1,500 of the little crawlies.

Levine said he takes any weather prediction with a grain of salt, whether it comes from a meteorologist or a woolly worm.

"People will believe what they want to believe," he said. "Maybe it's a coincidence, but the one client who told me that the woolly bears are the blackest he's ever been is a producer."

And if you miss the worm's early forecast, there's always the groundhog to let you know when winter -- and heating oil usage -- will end.

That soothsayer is Punxsutawney Phil, the Pennsylvania groundhog that emerges from hibernation on February 2. Legend has it that he can tell if winter will end early, depending on whether he sees his shadow.

Indeed, he's become so popular that Groundhog Day is considered an unofficial holiday in the United States.

Not only that, but Phil guarantees a 100 percent accurate prediction, says Mike Johnston, a member of the Phil's "Inner Circle."

There is one caveat, however.

"Phil is not burdened with geographical borders," said Johnston, who will announce Phil's winter forecast this year. "We can guarantee that when Phil predicts an early spring, somebody is going to have an early spring." Somewhere.